The belief that Vladimir Putin single-handedly “manufactured” the current conflict with the West to win domestic support, spark a surge in Russian patriotism and hold on to power at any cost, has been a staple of mainstream Western analysis of Russia since the Ukraine crisis began.

That same belief — that Putin manufactures crises or otherwise inserts Moscow into them to distract an antsy population — has subsequently spilled over into analysis of Russia’s intervention in the Syrian crisis.